Limits of Confidence in Diffusion
Discrete diffusion, including remasking and uniform-state samplers, generate a sequence by writing multiple token positions per step, drawing each from a per-position distribution and choosing which positions to write from those same distributions.

Key points
- For domains of general interest (pixels, phonemes, or words) there are inherent dependencies between tokens.
- On ScanAndAdd, a synthetic task whose joint distribution is available in closed form, we verify that every group of two or more undetermined positions a confidence ranking writes is dependent, and measure the generated distribution to be 29× the sampling-noise floor total variation while per-sample metrics are 1.0.
- July 9, 2026research area Methods and Algorithms, research area Speech and Natural Language Processing
- On-policy distillation offers dense, per-token supervision for training reasoning models; however, it remains unclear under which conditions this signal is beneficial and under which it is detrimental.
Sources (1)
- [1]Limits of Confidence in DiffusionApple Machine Learning Research · Oct 2, 12:00 AM
Discrete diffusion, including remasking and uniform-state samplers, generate a sequence by writing multiple token positions per step, drawing each from a per-position distribution and choosing which positions to write from those same distributions.
For domains of general interest (pixels, phonemes, or words) there are inherent dependencies between tokens.
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