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Research paperTraining & Scaling1 source · Oct 8, 2026

AdaptLSTM: Efficient Adaptive Online Learning for Cloud Workload Forecasting under Distribution Drift

Accurate workload forecasting is critical for elastic resource provisioning in web-scale cloud services, where distribution shifts driven by viral content, product launches, and user behavior degrade offline-trained models rapidly.

Key points

  • Naive online learning recovers accuracy but incurs prohibitive per-step compute cost.
  • We propose AdaptLSTM, an adaptive online framework that detects drift via validation-calibrated thresholds and applies selective, targeted updates.
  • On the Alibaba Machine Trace, AdaptLSTM recovers 54% of Naive Online's improvement at 20% cost ($2.7\times$ efficiency, $p=0.002$ over 10 seeds).
  • Wall-clock profiling shows $1.33\times$ throughput gain and 45% update-time reduction.

Sources (1)

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