ResearchResearch paperLarge Language Models1 source · Oct 8, 2026

Estimating great expectations under autoregressive language models with potentials

Many applications of language models hinge not on individual samples but on the expectation of a test functional under the model.

Key points

  • Estimating such expectations reliably can be computationally expensive.
  • In this paper, we show how to make estimation more efficient by exploiting the next-token conditional probabilities which are available as a by-product of sampling.
  • We do so through potentials: real-valued functions on prefixes that decompose the test functional additively.
  • We construct an estimator whose variance depends on the chosen potential, and derive conditions under which a potential reduces this variance.

Sources (1)

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